How Our Predictions Inspire Us

For a few weeks now I have been pondering the question: why do we bother predicting the future of technology? History holds a pattern of humans expressing predictions for future technologies or events, many of which never come to fruition. The lesson to be gained from this is that we are terrible at prediction, yet we love to predict. Perhaps our fear of the unknown affords a desire to know about the future so that we may rest peacefully knowing what lies ahead. Whatever the cause may be, I am more interested in examining the effects of our incessant prognostication.

Our predictions for future technologies have not been wholly inaccurate; in fact many foreseen inventions have been realized. Certain prescient technologies that appear in Back to the Future, once unobtainable and seemingly ludicrous, now exist and are commercially available to ordinary consumers. Perhaps one of the most astonishing prophecies of the late 20th century, Moore’s Law, has quite accurately predicted that the number of transistors which can fit into a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. Since its inception in 1970, Moore’s Law has held surprisingly true, which has experts wondering when, if ever, the rule will falter.

In the last century we have observed many similar prophecies which have been fulfilled, but also some which have not. Are some predictions simply lucky, or do certain individuals possess a sort of precognitive power? A more likely alternative is that these predictions are the conceptual models which inspire technological advancement. The creative ideas drawn by filmmakers, science fiction writers, and other technology enthusiasts offer pictures that scientists and engineers can use to realize these concepts. It may be naive to credit far-fetched ideas of the past with some of the inventions we use today, but the idea that our speculations subtly influence the future of technology is not entirely dismissible.

Our excitement for exploration and discovery is a powerful force for creativity which should never be mellowed. Discussing the future is a seemingly worthwhile and entertaining part of our culture with the potential to direct research efforts. So, why do we bother predicting the future of technology? As Abraham Lincoln once said, “the best way to predict the future is to create it.” Whether done as a wager or for entertainment, our fantastic speculations serve to foster the creativity and inspiration which drives invention.